Trussville, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

396
FXUS64 KBMX 231054
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
554 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 551 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025

 - There is a low chance for severe storms Saturday afternoon and
   evening and again on Sunday afternoon and evening as
   thunderstorms move through the area both days. Damaging winds
   and large hail will be the primary threats.

 - An active weather pattern is expected through the entire
   holiday weekend with a medium to high chance (50-80%) of
   thunderstorms each day. Some of these storms may become strong
   to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025

An incredibly disturbed pattern will begin to take shape by
Saturday, as upper-level troughing is reinforced by this afternoon,
repositioning a stalled front to our north. Storms will be ongoing
across portions of E. KS and W. MO by Saturday AM, with this
organized cluster of storms riding the stalled boundary southeast.
As daytime heating gets underway, this cluster of storms will begin
to organize once more, likely entering into the region during the
late morning and early afternoon hours. The SPC has maintained a
Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Saturday, as this cluster of storms
will be capable of producing damaging winds. These storms will also
be capable of producing very heavy rainfall, but any sort of
immediate threat for flooding or flash flooding doesn`t look likely.
That threat would likely materialize later next week with continued
rounds of heavy rain.

This scenario is heavily dependent upon the position of the
boundary, with further shifts north or south moving the complex
north and south with it. Not to steal too much of my Mid shift
partners thunder, but this looks to be much of the weather story for
the long-term as well.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025

An active weather pattern will bring several rounds of thunderstorms
through the area for the Memorial Day Weekend and much of next week.

A weak stalled boundary remains in place across Central AL
throughout most of the week with generally zonal flow aloft and high
pressure to our southeast. Several shortwaves are expected to move
through the region essentially every day from Sunday through
Thursday, which will lead to high rain/thunderstorm chances each
day. The uncertainty will be in the timing of each shortwave and
subsequent timing of any thunderstorm development through the
week. There will be at least a low probability for severe storms
on Sunday as the 2nd wave moves through the stalled boundary.
Damaging winds and hail will be the main concerns with this
activity.

It`s likely that we`ll have to introduce at least a low
probability of severe weather for several of the days in the
extended, as the environment will be primed for damaging winds and
large hail along and south of wherever the stalled frontal
boundary happens to be on each day. However, predictability on
timing of the shortwaves and placement of the boundary will
prevent the addition of risk areas beyond Sunday at this time.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated for the entire TAF period,

/44/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions continue today, with min RH values dropping to the
35 to 45 percent range. Generally light north to northwesterly
winds are expected today, shifting more easterly over the weekend. Rain
and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday with low chance of
severe storms. Wet pattern will continue through much of the
upcoming week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     79  56  76  60 /   0  20  50  40
Anniston    81  58  81  64 /   0  20  30  30
Birmingham  82  62  81  65 /   0  20  40  30
Tuscaloosa  85  64  84  68 /   0  10  40  20
Calera      84  63  84  68 /   0  10  30  20
Auburn      85  64  86  68 /   0  10  20  20
Montgomery  89  66  90  69 /   0   0  20  10
Troy        90  65  91  68 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION.../44/