Trussville, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

319
FXUS64 KBMX 092255
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
555 PM CDT Wed Apr 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 552 PM CDT WED APR 9 2025

- Level 1 and 2 (out of 5) risk for strong to severe storms
  Thursday afternoon and night. Large hail and damaging winds up
  to 60 mph are the primary concerns.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 1018 AM CDT WED APR 9 2025

The rest of today will be mostly clear and dry as a ridge over the
southeast weakens. Highs will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
this afternoon, a degree or two below normal for this time of
year. Tonight, low and mid level flow will shift to out of the
south and southwest, with some moisture and warmer air advecting
into the area. Lows overnight will be several degrees warmer but
still a touch below normal, in the 40s.

Thursday, a deep trough approaches from the northwest, with mid and
upper level flow transitioning to out of the west and northwest
bringing cold upper level temps to the area. This will help in storm
development along a boundary moving northwest to southeast
Thursday afternoon. Models are slightly unsteady on timing and
coverage of any storms, with uncertainties in how much moisture
will move back in the area, and how far south the line of storms
will make it into central Alabama.

Instabilities should be between 2000-2600 J/kg through the
afternoon, mainly in the northern half of the state. Storms that
develop over northern Alabama and southern TN will move southeast
around the trough, and move into those higher instabilities in the
late afternoon, generally between 3 and 5 pm at the earliest. The
line will move southeast, but instabilities and forcing should be
weakening towards sunset. By the late evening and early night,
instabilities should be less than 800 j/kg. A few models show
decent shear in the north along with the higher instabilities, but
confidence is lower on advertising this parameter. A majority of
the models show an increase in shear behind the line, with little
encouragement for rotating storms. Lapse rates will be decent with
that colder air aloft, which will aid in any threats for damaging
winds or large hail.

Overall, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
northern half of the area, with damaging winds and large hail the
main threat. The tornado threat would be more conditional right
now, depending on the shear and amount of moisture return that can
happen, that would then lower those cloud heights. Coverage
should be isolated to scattered. By late evening/early night as
the area of storms moves south, the severe threat should lower
(weaken), with a general area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms through around midnight or a few hours after. By
early morning, a few lingering showers could be possible in the
far southeast, before the system moves east by sunrise.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT WED APR 9 2025

No substantial changes were made to the long term portion of the
forecast. Aside from the chance of showers Friday afternoon,
conditions still look dry through the remainder of the period.

/61/

Previous long-term discussion:
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 217 AM CDT WED APR 9 2025

The deep longwave trough over the Eastern CONUS will persist Friday
through Saturday leading to continued northerly flow. Some guidance
has hinted at a secondary shortwave pushing through the trough on
Friday, which might lead to some isolated showers across the
northeastern portions of Central AL. Cooler temperatures are
expected Friday and Saturday with the cooler airmass in place. High
pressure begins to build in across the region Saturday through
Monday. This will lead to a gradual warming trend for Sunday through
Tuesday.

Another trough slides through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday,
which will push another frontal boundary southward into the TN
Valley. I have kept rain chances out of the forecast on Tuesday for
now, as the front may remain to our north through that time.
However, we could see increasing rain chances as we approach the
middle part of next week.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 552 PM CDT WED APR 9 2025

VFR conditions continue through this TAF cycle. Light and variable
winds will persist through midday Thursday. Winds will begin to
increase out of the west during the afternoon hours with gusts
near 20 knots likely at times.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms to
central Alabama Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Aside for a
small chance of showers in the northeast on Friday, no additional
wetting rain is in the forecast for the next 7 days. Winds and
relative humidities are expected to remain outside of critical
thresholds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     40  76  45  66 /   0  30  60  20
Anniston    43  76  48  66 /   0  30  60  20
Birmingham  46  77  49  67 /   0  20  50  10
Tuscaloosa  45  79  49  69 /   0  10  40  10
Calera      46  77  50  68 /   0  10  50  10
Auburn      47  75  53  68 /   0   0  50  10
Montgomery  44  79  52  71 /   0   0  40   0
Troy        44  78  53  71 /   0   0  30   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...95/Castillo